During the 2014 forecasters meeting, it was concluded that: “Forecasters need guidance to interpret high-resolution model output. This was a recurring problem during the discussions and emphasized by several forecasters. This related to the intrinsic stochastic nature of clouds and microphysics processes. It was also concluded that the human eye is not capable of interpreting a weather map in a probabilistic sense; i.e. it is not possible to interpret spatial variation in forecast patterns as probabilities over a wider area.†So the development of convection-permitting EPS systems will be crucial. Thus, the scientific presentations of the 2015 forecasters meeting focused on convection-permitting EPS.
Special presentation: “Interactive lakes in NWP†. Lake’s – natural or artificial (like the reservoirs and dams) - representation and parametrization on operational NWP models contribute to a better simulation of the models’ surface physical conditions. However, due to the fact that there is no real-time dissemination of the Lake’s observations, the impact of lakes parametrization in NWP can not be operationally monitored by a direct way. This can only be done through a priori validation studies (like fields campaigns) or post-mortem studies. Forecasters may have a view on the impact of misrepresenting lakes in regional NWP and we see this as an opportunity to open discussion on the topic inside the ALADIN community. The Alqueva Lake in Portugal is the biggest artificial lake in Europe and Évora University, which is active in this water reservoir modeling, has recently organized the event "Lake 2015 workshop" (http://www.lake15.cge.uevora.pt/). Therefore the local organization has invited Rui Salgado from Évora University to provide a debriefing of this SRNWP event.

• From science to operations
  • Piet Termonia: The ALADIN consortium and its model configurations
  • Florian Weidle: Status of the LAEF system
  • Joris Van den Bergh: Status of GLAMEPS
  • Laure Raynaud: Status of Météo-France convection-permitting EPS
  • Geert Smet: Toward convection-permitting EPS
  • Piet Termonia: discussion and planning of the meeting
• Forecast experiences (time includes questions and discussion)
  • Christopher Zingerle (AT): Use of high resolution NWP products in operational forecasting at ZAMG
  • Thomas Vanhamel (BE): General feedback from a forecasters point of view
  • Lidija Fustar & Tomislav Kozaric (HR): ALADIN forecast experience in Croatia
  • Iveta Kodádková (CZ): ALADIN case studies in Czech Republic: wind gusts and summer temperatures
  • Kornél Kolláth (HU): Thunderstorm forecast chain based on different types of NWP products - an everyday example
  • Rafal Kielar (PL): Use of ALADIN numerical products in Polish Meteorological Service
  • Rui Salgado (Special presentation): Interactive lakes in NWP
  • Maria João Frada (PT): 14 July 2013: An event over Portugal. Operational analyses
  • Miroslav Singer (SK): Cold wave in Slovakia in October 2015 using ECMWF ENS and ALADIN LAEF
  • Janko MerÅ¡e (SI): Forecast experience in Slovenia
  • Khaoula Melki (TN): ALADIN experience with convective situations
• WG: Convection permitting EPS lab (G. Smet, C. Zingerle)
  The proposal of this session was to have look with a forecasters expertience to some specifically prepared output of one of the propotypes convection-permitting EPSes and to document it.
• Discussion and wrap up (P. Termonia, C. Zingerle)

Participants

Photos