SEFERIAN Roland




Roland Séférian

CNRM (Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS)

Large-scale and Climate Modeling Department (GMGEC)

Earth System Team (EST)

42, Av. G. Coriolis

31057 Toulouse Cedex 1, France

Tél. +33 (0) 5 61 07 99 32

@ roland [dot] seferian [at] meteo [dot] fr
@ rseferian [dot] cnrm [at] gmail [dot] com

researchgate
google scholar
ORCID
Le climat en question


 Research Interests

  • Earth system modeling
  • Modeling of the marine biogeochemistry
  • Understanding the recent variability of the global carbon cycle.
  • Quantifying and understanding the amplitude and the mechanisms of the climate-carbon cycle feedbacks.

 Models

CNRM-ESM2-1
PISCES
ISBA-CTRIP


 Active Grants

European H2020 CRESCENDO project (2015-2020) website
European H2020 CONSTRAIN project (2019-2022) website
European H2020 COMFORT project (2019-2022) website
European BG08 TRIATLAS project (2019-2022) website


 Publications


2019

[42] Rogelj, J., Forster, P.M., Kriegler, E., Smith, C.J., Séférian, R.: Estimating and tracking the remaining carbon budget for stringent climate targets. Nature, 10.1038/s41586-019-1368-z, 2019.

[41] DeVries, T., Le Quéré, C., Andrews, O., Berthet, S., Hauck, J., Ilyina, T., Landschützer, P., Lenton, A., Lima, I. D., Nowicki, M., Schwinger, J., Séférian, R.:Decadal trends in the ocean carbon sink. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 201900371, doi:10.1073/pnas.1900371116, 2019.

[40] Plazzotta, M., Séférian, R. and Douville, H.: Impact of Solar Radiation Modification on allowable CO2 emissions: what can we learn from multi‐model simulations?. Earth’s Future, 7., https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001165, 2019.

[39] Voldoire, A., Saint-Martin, D., Sénési, S., Decharme, B., Alias, A., Chevallier, M., Colin, J., Guérémy, J.-F., Michou, M., Moine, M.-P., Nabat, P., Roehrig, R., Salas y Mélia, D., Séférian, R., Valcke, S., Beau, I., Belamari, S., Berthet, S., Cassou, C., Cattiaux, J., Deshayes, J., Douville, H., Ethé, C., Franchisteguy, L., Geoffroy, O., Lévy, C., Madec, G., Meurdesoif, Y., Msadek, R., Ribes, A., Sanchez-Gomez, E., Terray, L., Waldman, R.:. Evaluation of CMIP6 DECK experiments with CNRM‐CM6‐1. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 11. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001683, 2019.

[38] Berthet, S., Séférian, R., Bricaud, C., Chevallier, M., Voldoire, A. and Ethé, C.: Evaluation of an online grid‐coarsening algorithm in a global eddy‐admitting ocean‐biogeochemical model. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 11. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001644, 2019.

[37] Decharme, B., Delire, C., Minvielle, M., Colin, J., Vergnes, J.-P., Alias, A., Saint-Martin, D., Séférian, R., Sénési, S., Voldoire, A.: Recent changes in the ISBA‐CTRIP land surface system for use in the CNRM‐CM6 climate model and in global off‐line hydrological applications. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 11. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001545, 2019.

[36] Conte, L., Szopa, S., Séférian, R., and Bopp, L.: The oceanic cycle of carbon monoxide and its emissions to the atmosphere, Biogeosciences, 16, 881-902, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-881-2019, 2019.


2018

[35] Bastos, A., Friedlingstein, P., Sitch, S., Chen, C., Mialon, A., Wigneron, J.-P., Arora, V. K., Briggs, P. R., Canadell, J. G., Ciais, P., Chevallier, F., Cheng, L., Delire, C., Haverd, V., Jain, A. K., Joos, F., Kato, E., Lienert, S., Lombardozzi, D., Melton, J. R., Myneni, R., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Pongratz, J., Poulter, B., Rödenbeck, C., Séférian, R., Tian, H., van Eck, C., Viovy, N., Vuichard, N., Walker, A. P., Wiltshire, A., Yang, J., Zaehle, S., Zeng, N., Zhu, D.: Impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial carbon cycle constrained by bottom-up and top-down approaches. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. B, Biological Sciences, 373 (1760), 1-11. , DOI : 10.1098/rstb.2017.0304, 2018.

[34] Le Quéré, C., Andrew, R. M., Friedlingstein, P., Sitch, S., Hauck, J., Pongratz, J., Pickers, P. A., Korsbakken, J. I., Peters, G. P., Canadell, J. G., Arneth, A., Arora, V. K., Barbero, L., Bastos, A., Bopp, L., Chevallier, F., Chini, L. P., Ciais, P., Doney, S. C., Gkritzalis, T., Goll, D. S., Harris, I., Haverd, V., Hoffman, F. M., Hoppema, M., Houghton, R. A., Hurtt, G., Ilyina, T., Jain, A. K., Johannessen, T., Jones, C. D., Kato, E., Keeling, R. F., Goldewijk, K. K., Landschützer, P., Lefèvre, N., Lienert, S., Liu, Z., Lombardozzi, D., Metzl, N., Munro, D. R., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Nakaoka, S.-I., Neill, C., Olsen, A., Ono, T., Patra, P., Peregon, A., Peters, W., Peylin, P., Pfeil, B., Pierrot, D., Poulter, B., Rehder, G., Resplandy, L., Robertson, E., Rocher, M., Rödenbeck, C., Schuster, U., Schwinger, J., Séférian, R., Skjelvan, I., Steinhoff, T., Sutton, A., Tans, P. P., Tian, H., Tilbrook, B., Tubiello, F. N., van der Laan-Luijkx, I. T., van der Werf, G. R., Viovy, N., Walker, A. P., Wiltshire, A. J., Wright, R., Zaehle, S., and Zheng, B.: Global Carbon Budget 2018, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 2141-2194, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018, 2018.

[33] Seneviratne, S. I., Rogelj, J., Séférian, R., Wartenburger, R., Allen, M. R., Cain, M., Millar, R. J., Ebi, K. L., Ellis, N., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Payne, A. J., Schleussner, C.-F., Tschakert, P., Warren, R. F.: The many possible climates from the Paris Agreement’s aim of 1.5 $^o$C warming. Nature 06/2018; 558(7708)., DOI:10.1038/s41586-018-0181-4, 2018.

[32] Plazzotta, M., Séférian, R., Douville, H., Kravitz, B., Tjiputra, J.: Land surface cooling induced by sulfate geoengineering constrained by major volcanic eruptions. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 5663–5671. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL077583, 2018.

[31] Le Quéré, C., Andrew, R. M., Friedlingstein, P., Sitch, S., Pongratz, J., Manning, A. C., Korsbakken, J. I., Peters, G. P., Canadell, J. G., Jackson, R. B., Boden, T. A., Tans, P. P., Andrews, O. D., Arora, V. K., Bakker, D. C. E., Barbero, L., Becker, M., Betts, R. A., Bopp, L., Chevallier, F., Chini, L. P., Ciais, P., Cosca, C. E., Cross, J., Currie, K., Gasser, T., Harris, I., Hauck, J., Haverd, V., Houghton, R. A., Hunt, C. W., Hurtt, G., Ilyina, T., Jain, A. K., Kato, E., Kautz, M., Keeling, R. F., Klein Goldewijk, K., Körtzinger, A., Landschützer, P., Lefèvre, N., Lenton, A., Lienert, S., Lima, I., Lombardozzi, D., Metzl, N., Millero, F., Monteiro, P. M. S., Munro, D. R., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Nakaoka, S.-I., Nojiri, Y., Padin, X. A., Peregon, A., Pfeil, B., Pierrot, D., Poulter, B., Rehder, G., Reimer, J., Rödenbeck, C., Schwinger, J., Séférian, R., Skjelvan, I., Stocker, B. D., Tian, H., Tilbrook, B., Tubiello, F. N., van der Laan-Luijkx, I. T., van der Werf, G. R., van Heuven, S., Viovy, N., Vuichard, N., Walker, A. P., Watson, A. J., Wiltshire, A. J., Zaehle, S., and Zhu, D.: Global Carbon Budget 2017, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 405-448, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-405-2018, 2018.

[30] Séférian, R., Baek, S., Boucher, O., Dufresne, J.-L., Decharme, B., Saint-Martin, D., Roehrig, R. : An interactive ocean surface albedo scheme (OSAv1.0) : formulation and evaluation in ARPEGE-Climat (V6.1) and LMDZ (V5A), Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 321-338, https ://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-321-2018,
2018a.

[29] Séférian, R., Berthet, S., Chevallier, M. : Assessing the decadal predictability of land and ocean carbon uptake. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 2455–2466. https ://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076092, 2018b.

[28] Séférian, R., Rocher, M., Guivarch, C., Colin, J. : Constraints on biomass energy deployment in mitigation pathways : The case of water scarcity. Environmental Research Letters, 13(5)., DOI :10.1088/1748-9326/aabcd7, 2018c.


2017

[27] Adrien Napoly, Aaron Boone, Patrick Samuelsson, Stefan Gollvik, Eric Martin, Séférian, R., Dominique Carrer, Bertrand Decharme, Lionel Jarlan: The interactions between soil–biosphere–atmosphere (ISBA) land surface model multi-energy balance (MEB) option in SURFEXv8 – Part 2: Introduction of a litter formulation and model evaluation for local-scale forest sites. Geoscientific Model Development 04/2017; 10(4):1621-1644., DOI:10.5194/gmd-10-1621-2017

[26] Lester Kwiatkowski, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Aumont, Philippe Ciais, Peter M. Cox, Charlotte Laufkötter, Yue Li, Séférian, R.: Emergent constraints on projections of declining primary production in the tropical oceans. Nature Climate Change 04/2017; 7(5)., DOI:10.1038/nclimate3265

[25] Stephanie A. Henson, Claudie Beaulieu, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmine G. John, Matthew Long, Séférian, R., Jerry Tjiputra, Jorge L. Sarmiento: Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems. Nature Communications 02/2017; 8., DOI:10.1038/ncomms14682


2016

[24] Desiree Tommasi, Charles A. Stock, Alistair J. Hobday, Rick Methot, Isaac C. Kaplan, J. Paige Eveson, Kirstin Holsman, Timothy J. Miller, Sarah Gaichas, Marion Gehlen, Andrew Pershing, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Rym Msadek, Tom Delworth, C. Mark Eakin, Melissa A. Haltuch, Séférian, R., Claire M. Spillman, Jason R. Hartog, Samantha Siedlecki, Jameal F. Samhouri, Barbara Muhling, Rebecca G. Asch, Malin L. Pinsky, Vincent S. Saba, Sarah B. Kapnick, Carlos F. Gaitan, Ryan R. Rykaczewski, Michael A. Alexander, Yan Xue, Kathleen V. Pegion, Patrick Lynch, Mark R. Payne, Trond Kristiansen, Patrick Lehodey, Francisco E. Werner: Managing living marine resources in a dynamic environment: The role of seasonal to decadal climate forecasts. Progress In Oceanography 02/2017; 152., DOI:10.1016/j.pocean.2016.12.011

[23] Younjoo J. Lee, Patricia A. Matrai, Marjorie A. M. Friedrichs, Vincent S. Saba, Olivier Aumont, Marcel Babin, Erik T. Buitenhuis, Matthieu Chevallier, Lee de Mora, Morgane Dessert, John P. Dunne, Ingrid H. Ellingsen, Doron Feldman, Robert Frouin, Marion Gehlen, Thomas Gorgues, Tatiana Ilyina, Meibing Jin, Jasmin G. John, Jonathan Lawrence, Manfredi Manizza, Christophe Eugène Menkes, Coralie Perruche, Vincent Le Fouest, Ekaterina E. Popova, Anastasia Romanou, Annette Samuelsen, Jörg Schwinger, Séférian, R., Charles A. Stock, Jerry Tjiputra, L. Bruno Tremblay, Kyozo Ueyoshi, Marcello Vichi, Andrew Yool, Jinlun Zhang: Net primary productivity estimates and environmental variables in the Arctic Ocean: An assessment of coupled physical-biogeochemical models. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 11/2016; 121(12)., DOI:10.1002/2016JC011993

[22] Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Josep G. Canadell, Stephen Sitch, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Andrew C. Manning, Thomas A. Boden, Pieter P. Tans, Richard A. Houghton, Ralph F. Keeling, Simone Alin, Oliver D. Andrews, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Kim Currie, Christine Delire, Scott C. Doney, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thanos Gkritzalis, Ian Harris, Judith Hauck, Vanessa Haverd, Mario Hoppema, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, Frank Millero, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Kevin O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Christian Rödenbeck, Joe Salisbury, Ute Schuster, Jörg Schwinger, Séférian, R., Ingunn Skjelvan, Benjamin D. Stocker, Adrienne J. Sutton, Taro Takahashi, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Sönke Zaehle: Global Carbon Budget 2016. 10/2016;, DOI:10.5194/essd-2016-51

[21] Charlotte Laufkötter, Meike Vogt, Nicolas Gruber, Olivier Aumont, Laurent Bopp, Scott C. Doney, John P. Dunne, Judith Hauck, Jasmin G. John, Ivan D. Lima, Séférian, R., Christoph Völker: Projected decreases in future marine export production: The role of the carbon flux through the upper ocean ecosystem. Biogeosciences 07/2016; 13(13):4023-4047., DOI:10.5194/bg-13-4023-2016

[20] Olivier Boucher, Valentin Bellassen, Hélène Benveniste, Philippe Ciais, Patrick Criqui, Céline Guivarch, Hervé Le Treut, Sandrine Mathy, Séférian, R.: Opinion: In the wake of Paris Agreement, scientists must embrace new directions for climate change research. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 07/2016; 113(27):7287-7290., DOI:10.1073/pnas.1607739113

[19] Jiafu Mao, Aurélien Ribes, Binyan Yan, Xiaoying Shi, Peter E. Thornton, Séférian, R., Philippe Ciais, Ranga B. Myneni, Hervé Douville, Shilong Piao, Zaichun Zhu, Robert E. Dickinson, Yongjiu Dai, Daniel M. Ricciuto, Mingzhou Jin, Forrest M. Hoffman, Bin Wang, Mengtian Huang, Xu Lian: Human-induced greening of the northern extratropical land surface. Nature Climate Change 06/2016; 6(10)., DOI:10.1038/nclimate3056

[18] Le Mézo, P., Lefort, S., Séférian, R., Aumont, O., Maury, O., Murtugudde, R. and Bopp, L.: Natural variability of marine ecosystems inferred from a coupled climate to ecosystem simulation, Journal of Marine Systems, 153(C), 55-66. doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2015.09.004, 2016.


2015

[17] Le Quéré, C., Moriarty, R., Andrew, R. M., Peters, G. P., Ciais, P., Friedlingstein, P., Jones, S. D., Sitch, S., Tans, P., Arneth, A., Boden, T. A., Bopp, L., Bozec, Y., Canadell, J. G., Chini, L. P., Chevallier, F., Cosca, C. E., Harris, I., Hoppema, M., Houghton, R. A., House, J. I., Jain, A. K., Johannessen, T., Kato, E., Keeling, R. F., Kitidis, V., Klein Goldewijk, K., Koven, C., Landa, C. S., Landschützer, P., Lenton, A., Lima, I. D., Marland, G., Mathis, J. T., Metzl, N., Nojiri, Y., Olsen, A., Ono, T., Peng, S., Peters, W., Pfeil, B., Poulter, B., Raupach, M. R., Regnier, P., Rödenbeck, C., Saito, S., Salisbury, J. E., Schuster, U., Schwinger, J., Séférian, R., Segschneider, J., Steinhoff, T., Stocker, B. D., Sutton, A. J., Takahashi, T., Tilbrook, B., van der Werf, G. R., Viovy, N., Wang, Y. P., Wanninkhof, R., Wiltshire, A. and Zeng, N.: Global Carbon Budget 2015, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7(2), 349–396, doi:10.5194/essd-7-349-2015, 2015.

[16] Laufkötter, C., Vogt, M., Gruber, N., Aita-Noguchi, M., Aumont, O., Bopp, L., Buitenhuis, E., Doney, S. C., Dunne, J., Hashioka, T., Hauck, J., Hirata, T., John, J., Le Quéré, C., Lima, I. D., Nakano, H., Séférian, R., Totterdell, I., Vichi, M. and Völker, C.: Drivers and uncertainties of future global marine primary production in marine ecosystem models, Biogeosciences, 12(23), 6955–6984, doi:10.5194/bg-12-6955-2015, 2015.

[15] Hauck, J., Völker, C., Wolf-Gladrow, D. A., Laufkötter, C., Vogt, M., Aumont, O., Bopp, L., Buitenhuis, E., Doney, S. C., Dunne, J., Gruber, N., Hashioka, T., John, J., Le Quéré, C., Lima, I. D., Nakano, H., Séférian, R. and Totterdell, I.: On the Southern Ocean CO2 uptake and the role of the biological carbon pump in the 21st century, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 29, doi:10.1002/2015GB005140, 2015.

[14] Le Quéré, C., Moriarty, R., Andrew, R. M., Peters, G. P., Ciais, P., Friedlingstein, P., Jones, S. D., Sitch, S., Tans, P., Arneth, A., Boden, T. A., Bopp, L., Bozec, Y., Canadell, J. G., Chini, L. P., Chevallier, F., Cosca, C. E., Harris, I., Hoppema, M., Houghton, R. A., House, J. I., Jain, A. K., Johannessen, T., Kato, E., Keeling, R. F., Kitidis, V., Klein Goldewijk, K., Koven, C., Landa, C. S., Landschützer, P., Lenton, A., Lima, I. D., Marland, G., Mathis, J. T., Metzl, N., Nojiri, Y., Olsen, A., Ono, T., Peng, S., Peters, W., Pfeil, B., Poulter, B., Raupach, M. R., Regnier, P., Rödenbeck, C., Saito, S., Salisbury, J. E., Schuster, U., Schwinger, J., Séférian, R., Segschneider, J., Steinhoff, T., Stocker, B. D., Sutton, A. J., Takahashi, T., Tilbrook, B., van der Werf, G. R., Viovy, N., Wang, Y. P., Wanninkhof, R., Wiltshire, A. and Zeng, N.: Global carbon budget 2014, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7(1), 47–85, doi:10.5194/essd-7-47-2015, 2015.

[13] Middag, R., Séférian, R., Conway, T. M., John, S. G., Bruland, K. W. and de Baar, H. J. W.: Intercomparison of dissolved trace elements at the Bermuda Atlantic Time Series station, Marine Chemistry VL -, (0 SP - EP - PY - T2 -), 2015.

[12] Resplandy, L., Séférian, R. and Bopp, L.: Natural variability of CO2 and O2 fluxes: What can we learn from centuries-long climate models simulations? Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 120(1), 384–404, doi:10.1002/2014JC010463, 2015.

[11] Swingedouw, D., Ortega, P., Mignot, J., Guilyardi, E., Masson-Delmotte, V., Butler, P. G., Khodri, M. and Séférian, R.: Bidecadal North Atlantic ocean circulation variability controlled by timing of volcanic eruptions, Nat Commun, 6:6545, doi:10.1038/ncomms7545, 2015.


2014

[10] Gehlen, M., Séférian, R., Jones, D. O. B., Roy, T., Roth, R., Barry, J., Bopp, L., Doney, S. C., Dunne, J. P., Heinze, C., Joos, F., Orr, J. C., Resplandy, L., Segschneider, J. and Tjiputra, J.: Projected pH reductions by 2100 might put deep North Atlantic biodiversity at risk, Biogeosciences, 11(23), 6955–6967, 2014.

[9] Schwinger, J., Tjiputra, J. F., Heinze, C., Bopp, L., Christian, J. R., Gehlen, M., Ilyina, T., Jones, C. D., Salas-Mélia, D., Segschneider, J., Séférian, R. and Totterdell, I.: Nonlinearity of Ocean Carbon Cycle Feedbacks in CMIP5 Earth System Models, J. Climate, 27(11), 3869–3888, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00452.1, 2014.

[8] Servonnat, J., Mignot, J., Guilyardi, E., Swingedouw, D., Séférian, R. and Labetoulle, S.: Reconstructing the subsurface ocean decadal variability using surface nudging in a perfect model framework, Clim Dyn, 44(1-2), 1–24–24, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2184-7, 2014.

[7] Séférian, R., Bopp, L., Gehlen, M., Swingedouw, D., Mignot, J., Guilyardi, E. and Servonnat, J.: Multiyear predictability of tropical marine productivity, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(32), 11646–11651, 2014a.

[6] Séférian, R., Ribes, A. and Bopp, L.: Detecting the anthropogenic influences on recent changes in ocean carbon uptake, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41(16), 5968–5977, doi:10.1002/2014GL061223, 2014b.


2013

[5] Bopp, L., Resplandy, L., Orr, J. C., Doney, S. C., Dunne, J. P., Gehlen, M., Halloran, P., Heinze, C., Ilyina, T., Séférian, R., Tjiputra, J. and Vichi, M.: Multiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century: projections with CMIP5 models, Biogeosciences, 10(10), 6225–6245, doi:10.5194/bg-10-6225-2013, 2013.

[4] Mignot, J., Swingedouw, D., Deshayes, J., Marti, O., Talandier, C., Séférian, R., Lengaigne, M. and Madec, G.: On the evolution of the oceanic component of the IPSL climate models from CMIP3 to CMIP5: A mean state comparison, Ocean Modelling, 72 IS -(0 SP - EP - PY - T2 -), 167–184, 2013.

[3] Séférian, R., Bopp, L., Gehlen, M., Orr, J., Ethé, C., Cadule, P., Aumont, O., Salas y Mélia, D., Voldoire, A. and Madec, G.: Skill assessment of three earth system models with common marine biogeochemistry, Climate Dynamics, 40(9-10), 2549–2573, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1362-8, 2013a.

[2] Séférian, R., Bopp, L., Swingedouw, D. and Servonnat, J.: Dynamical and biogeochemical control on the decadal variability of ocean carbon fluxes, Earth Syst. Dynam., 4(1), 109–127, doi:10.5194/esd-4-109-2013, 2013b.


2012

[1] Séférian, R., Iudicone, D., Bopp, L., Roy, T. and Madec, G.: Water Mass Analysis of Effect of Climate Change on Air–Sea CO2 Fluxes: The Southern Ocean, J. Climate, 25(11), 3894–3908, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00291.1, 2012.

In discussion or in revision:


[4] Rocher, M., Séférian, R., Delire, C., Carrer, D., Munier, S., Ceschia, E., Buchmann, N., Maier, R., Brut, A., Manise, T., Heinesch, B., Buysse, P., Loubet, B., A Global Scheme for predicting timing of crop emergence through the use of a statistical learning approach, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, in review.

[3] M. Michou, P. Nabat, D. Saint-Martin, J. Bock, B. Decharme, M. Mallet, R. Roehrig, Séférian, R., S. Sénési and Voldoire, A., Present-day and historical aerosol and ozone characteristics in CNRM CMIP6 simulations, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, in review.

[2] Jones, C. D., Frölicher, T. L., Koven, C., MacDougall, A. H., Matthews, H. D., Zickfeld, K., Rogelj, J., Tokarska, K. B., Gillett, N., Ilyina, T., Meinshausen, M., Mengis, N., Séférian, R., and Eby, M.: The Zero Emission Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) contribution to CMIP6: Quantifying committed climate changes following zero carbon emissions, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-153, in review, 2019.

[1] Séférian, R., Nabat, P., Michou, M., Saint-Martin, D., Voldoire, A., Colin, J., Decharme, B., Delire, C., Berthet, S., Chevallier, M., Sénési, S., Franchisteguy, L., Vial, J., Mallet, M., Joetzjer, E., Geoffroy, O., Guérémy, J.-F., Moine, M.-P., Msadek, R., Ribes, A., Rocher, M., Roehrig, R., Salas-y-Mélia, D., Sanchez, E., Terray, L., Valcke, S., Waldman, R., Aumont, O., Bopp, L., Deshayes, J., Éthé, C., and Madec, G. : Evaluation of CNRM Earth-System model , CNRM-ESM2-1 : role of Earth system processes in present-day and future climate, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, pp. 1–91, in review.

 Book Chapters

[6] M. R. Allen, H. de Coninck, O. P. Dube, O. Hoegh-Guldberg, D. Jacob, K. Jiang, A. Revi, J. Rogelj, J. Roy, D. Shindell, W. Solecki, M. Taylor, P. Tschakert, H. Waisman, S. A. Halim, P. Antwi-Agyei, F. Aragón–Durand, M. Babiker, P. Bertoldi, M. Bindi, S. Brown, M. Buckeridge, I. Camilloni, A. Cartwright, W. Cramer, P. Dasgupta, A. Diedhiou, R. Djalante, W. Dong, K. L. Ebi, F. Engelbrecht, S. Fifita, J. Ford, P. Forster, S. Fuss, B. Hayward, J.-C. Hourcade, V. Ginzburg, J. Guiot, C. Handa, Y. Hijioka, S. Humphreys, M. Kainuma, J. Kala, M. Kanninen, H. Kheshgi, S. Kobayashi, E. Kriegler, D. Ley, D. Liverman, N. Mahowald, R. Mechler, S. Mehrotra, Y. Mulugetta, L. Mundaca, P. Newman, C. Okereke, A. Payne, R. Perez, P. F. Pinho, A. Revokatova, K. Riahi, S. Schultz, \textbfR. Séférian, S. I. Seneviratne, L. Steg, A. G. Suarez Rodriguez, T. Sugiyama, A. Thomas, M. V. Vilariño, M. Wairiu, R. Warren, G. Zhou, K. Zickfeld, 2018, Technical Sunnary. In: Global warming of 1.5 °C . An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty [V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, H. O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J. B. R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M. I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, T. Waterfield (eds.)]. In Press.

[5] M. R. Allen, O. P. Dube, W. Solecki, F. Aragón–Durand, W. Cramer, S. Humphreys, M. Kainuma, J. Kala, N. Mahowald, Y. Mulugetta, R. Perez, M. Wairiu, K. Zickfeld, 2018, Framing and Context. In: Global warming of 1.5 °C . An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty [V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, H. O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J. B. R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M. I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, T. Waterfield (eds.)]. In Press.

[4] J. Rogelj, D. Shindell, K. Jiang, S. Fifita, P. Forster, V. Ginzburg, C. Handa, H. Kheshgi, S. Kobayashi, E. Kriegler, L. Mundaca, \textbfR. Séférian, M. V. Vilariño, 2018, Mitigation pathways compatible with 1.5 °C in the context of sustainable development. In: Global warming of 1.5 °C . An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty [V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, H. O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P. R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J. B. R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M. I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, T. Waterfield (eds.)]. In Press.

[3] O. Hoegh-Guldberg, D. Jacob, M. Taylor, M. Bindi, S. Brown, I. Camilloni, A. Diedhiou, R. Djalante, K. Ebi, F. Engelbrecht, J. Guiot, Y. Hijioka, S. Mehrotra, A. Payne, S. I. Seneviratne, A. Thomas, R. Warren, G. Zhou, 2018, Impacts of 1.5 °C Global Warming on Natural and Human Systems. In: Global Warming of 1.5 °C . An IPCC Special Report on the Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5 °C above Pre-Industrial Levels and Related Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Pathways, in the Context of Strengthening the Global Response to the Threat of Climate Change, Sustainable Development, and Efforts to Eradicate Poverty [V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, H. O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J. B. R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M. I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, T. Waterfield (eds.)]. In Press.

[2] H. de Coninck, A. Revi, M. Babiker, P. Bertoldi, M. Buckeridge, A. Cartwright, W. Dong, J. Ford, S. Fuss, JC. Hourcade, D. Ley, R. Mechler, P. Newman, A. Revokatova, S. Schultz, L. Steg, T. Sugiyama, 2018, Strengthening and implementing the global response. In: Global warming of 1.5 °C . An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the
global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty [V. Masson- Delmotte, P. Zhai, H. O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J. B. R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M. I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, T. Waterfield (eds.)]. In Press.

[1] Garçon, V., Bell, T., Wallace, D., Arnold, S., Baker, A., Bakker, D. E., Bange, H., Bates, N., Bopp, L., Boutin, J., Boyd, P., Bracher, A., Burrows, J., Carpenter, L., de Leeuw, G., Fennel, K., Font, J., Friedrich, T., Garbe, C., Gruber, N., Jaeglé, L., Lana, A., Lee, J., Liss, P., Miller, L., Olgun, N., Olsen, A., Pfeil, B., Quack, B., Read, K., Reul, N., Rödenbeck, C., Rohekar, S., Saiz-Lopez, A., Saltzman, E., Schneising, O., Schuster, U., Séférian, R. Steinhoff, T., Traon, P.-Y. and Ziska, F.: Perspectives and Integration in SOLAS Science, in Springer Earth System Sciences, edited by P. S. Liss and M. T. Johnson, pp. 247–306, Springer Berlin Heidelberg. 2014.


 Student Supervision


Post-docs

2018-2019: Emilie Joetzjer (post-doctoral at CNRM) Assessing the response of land vegetation to climate change. Co-advising with C. Delire (CNRM).
2017-2019: Sarah Berthet (post-doctoral at CNRM) Development of an high-resolution ocean-biogeochemical model.
2017-2018: Samuel Quesada (post-doctoral at CNRM) Evaluation of atmospheric CO$_2$ as simulated by Earth system models. Co-advising with P. Ricaud (CNRM).
2013-2015: Sunghye Baek (post-doctoral at IPSL, Paris, France) Development of an ocean surface albedo parameterization for Earth system models. Co-advising with O. Boucher (IPSL, France).


Thèse

2016-2020: Matthias Rocher (PhD of Toulouse University) Assessing the role of agricultural practices to mitigate climate change within globa modelling.
2015-2018: Maxime Plazzotta (PhD of Toulouse University) Impacts of solar radiation management on the Earth system: Focus on carbon and water cycles.


Master 2

2015: Adrien Colomb The seasonal response of the land and ocean carbon cycles to solar radiation management. (co-encadrement A. Lenton (CSIRO)).


Master 1

2015: Cécile Porchier & Simon Jalladeau Modélisation des feux naturels dans un contexte de changement climatique. (co-encadrement C. Delire).

2014: Marion Le Brun Étude de la sensibilité des simulations de la biogéochimie marine à la physique de la banquise. (co-encadrement M. Chevallier).

2013: Priscilla Le Mézo Variabilité de la biogéochimie marine dans le Pacifique Équatorial, impact sur les niveaux trophiques supérieurs. (co-encadrement L. Bopp et S. Lefort (IPSL/LSCE)).


 PhD Thesis

Impact of Climate Change on the Ocean Carbon Flux. Influence of the Decadal Variability


Abstract

Since the industrial revolution, oceans have absorbed roughly one quarter of the anthropogenic emissions of CO2, slowing down climate change. The evolution of the ocean carbon sink, paralleled to the anthropogenic CO2 emissions, is ruled by the CO2 as well as climate. Influence of atmospheric CO2 in the recent evolution of the ocean carbon sink is well understood whilst this is not the case for the climate’s one. Indeed, some authors claim that the recent variations of the ocean CO2 sink can be attributed to climate change, whereas some others suggest that these latter are controlled by a decadal variability, which is poorly understood. In this thesis, we address question relative to the role of the decadal variability of the ocean carbon fluxes through the mean of numerical modeling.
On one hand, we have demonstrated that ocean carbon fluxes exhibit decadal fluctuations within the high latitudes oceans. These fluctuations displays modes of 10 to 50-year long which account for 20-40% of the year-to-year variability. Thanks to Detection & Attribution methods applied to RECCAP project’s reconstructions (1960-2005), we have then assessed whether the occurrence of fluctuations at decadal time scale could hamper the detection of the climate contribution to the recent evolution of ocean carbon fluxes. We have shown that the climate contribution is indeed not detected in the high latitude oceans due to the presence of decadal mode of variability. In the low latitude oceans instead, the weaker fluctuations of ocean carbon fluxes at decadal time scale favour the detection of climate influence in the recent variations of the CO2 fluxes.


Keywords

Climate variability – carbon cycle modeling – marine biogeochemistry – carbon cycle feedbacks


No one shall be held responsible, scientifically or otherwise for the content of these pages / articles, but the authors themselves and in no way the responsibility of the CNRM-GAME .