SEFERIAN Roland




Roland Séférian

CNRM-GAME (UMR CNRS & Météo-France)

GMGEC/ASTER

Large-scale and Climate Modeling Department

Earth System Development and Climate Feedbacks Studies

42, Av. G. Coriolis

31057 Toulouse Cedex 1, France

Tél. +33 (0) 5 61 07 99 32

@ roland [dot] seferian [at] meteo [dot] fr
@ rseferian [dot] cnrm [at] gmail [dot] com

researchgate
google scholar
Le climat en question


 Research Interests

  • Earth system modeling
  • Modeling of the marine biogeochemistry
  • Understanding the recent variability of the global carbon cycle.
  • Quantifying and understanding the amplitude and the mechanisms of the climate-carbon cycle feedbacks.

 Projects

- FP7-COMBINE (Comprehensive Modelling of the Earth System for Better Climate Prediction and Projection) [2009-2013].
- FP7-CARBOCHANGE (Changes in carbon uptake and emissions by oceans in a changing climate) [2011-2015].
- H2020-CRESCENDO (Coordinated Research in Earth Systems and Climate: Experiments, kNowledge, Dissemination and Outreach) [2015-2020]: Lead of the marine biogeochemistry evaluation workpackage.


 Peer-reviewed Publications


Submitted

Laufkötter, C., Vogt, M., Gruber, N., Bopp, L., Done, S. C., Dunne, J. P., Hauck, J., John, J., Lima, I., Séférian, R., Völker, C.. Projected decreases in future marine export production: the role of the carbon flux through the upper ocean ecosystem.
Biogeosciences discussions

Mao, J., Ribes, A., Yan, B., Shi, X., Séférian, R., Ciais, P., Dai, Y., Dickinson, R. E., Douville, E., Gulledge, J., Hoffman, F. M., Jin, M., Piao, S., Ricciuto, D. M., Thornton, P. E., Wang, B., Zhu, Z. Human-induced greening of the northern extratropical land surface. Nature Climate Change


In discussion or revision

Séférian, R., Delire, C., Decharme, B., Voldoire, A., Salas y Mélia, D., Chevallier, M., Saint-Martin, D., Aumont, O., Calvet, J.-C., Carrer, D., Douville, H., Franchistéguy, L., Joetzjer, E. and Sénési, S.: Development and evaluation of CNRM Earth-System model – CNRM-ESM1, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., 8(7), 5671–5739, 2015a.

Séférian, R., Gehlen, M., Bopp, L., Resplandy, L., Orr, J. C., Marti, O., Dunne, J. P., Christian, J. R., Doney, S. C., Ilyina, T., Lindsay, K., Halloran, P., Heinze, C., Segschneider, J. and Tjiputra, J.: Inconsistent strategies to spin up models in CMIP5: implications for ocean biogeochemical model performance assessment, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., 8(10), 8751–8808, 2015b.


2016

[18] Le Mézo, P., Lefort, S., Séférian, R., Aumont, O., Maury, O., Murtugudde, R. and Bopp, L.: Natural variability of marine ecosystems inferred from a coupled climate to ecosystem simulation, Journal of Marine Systems, 153(C), 55-66. doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2015.09.004, 2016.


2015

[17] Le Quéré, C., Moriarty, R., Andrew, R. M., Peters, G. P., Ciais, P., Friedlingstein, P., Jones, S. D., Sitch, S., Tans, P., Arneth, A., Boden, T. A., Bopp, L., Bozec, Y., Canadell, J. G., Chini, L. P., Chevallier, F., Cosca, C. E., Harris, I., Hoppema, M., Houghton, R. A., House, J. I., Jain, A. K., Johannessen, T., Kato, E., Keeling, R. F., Kitidis, V., Klein Goldewijk, K., Koven, C., Landa, C. S., Landschützer, P., Lenton, A., Lima, I. D., Marland, G., Mathis, J. T., Metzl, N., Nojiri, Y., Olsen, A., Ono, T., Peng, S., Peters, W., Pfeil, B., Poulter, B., Raupach, M. R., Regnier, P., Rödenbeck, C., Saito, S., Salisbury, J. E., Schuster, U., Schwinger, J., Séférian, R., Segschneider, J., Steinhoff, T., Stocker, B. D., Sutton, A. J., Takahashi, T., Tilbrook, B., van der Werf, G. R., Viovy, N., Wang, Y. P., Wanninkhof, R., Wiltshire, A. and Zeng, N.: Global Carbon Budget 2015, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7(2), 349–396, doi:10.5194/essd-7-349-2015, 2015.

[16] Laufkötter, C., Vogt, M., Gruber, N., Aita-Noguchi, M., Aumont, O., Bopp, L., Buitenhuis, E., Doney, S. C., Dunne, J., Hashioka, T., Hauck, J., Hirata, T., John, J., Le Quéré, C., Lima, I. D., Nakano, H., Séférian, R., Totterdell, I., Vichi, M. and Völker, C.: Drivers and uncertainties of future global marine primary production in marine ecosystem models, Biogeosciences, 12(23), 6955–6984, doi:10.5194/bg-12-6955-2015, 2015.

[15] Hauck, J., Völker, C., Wolf-Gladrow, D. A., Laufkötter, C., Vogt, M., Aumont, O., Bopp, L., Buitenhuis, E., Doney, S. C., Dunne, J., Gruber, N., Hashioka, T., John, J., Le Quéré, C., Lima, I. D., Nakano, H., Séférian, R. and Totterdell, I.: On the Southern Ocean CO2 uptake and the role of the biological carbon pump in the 21st century, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 29, doi:10.1002/2015GB005140, 2015.

[14] Le Quéré, C., Moriarty, R., Andrew, R. M., Peters, G. P., Ciais, P., Friedlingstein, P., Jones, S. D., Sitch, S., Tans, P., Arneth, A., Boden, T. A., Bopp, L., Bozec, Y., Canadell, J. G., Chini, L. P., Chevallier, F., Cosca, C. E., Harris, I., Hoppema, M., Houghton, R. A., House, J. I., Jain, A. K., Johannessen, T., Kato, E., Keeling, R. F., Kitidis, V., Klein Goldewijk, K., Koven, C., Landa, C. S., Landschützer, P., Lenton, A., Lima, I. D., Marland, G., Mathis, J. T., Metzl, N., Nojiri, Y., Olsen, A., Ono, T., Peng, S., Peters, W., Pfeil, B., Poulter, B., Raupach, M. R., Regnier, P., Rödenbeck, C., Saito, S., Salisbury, J. E., Schuster, U., Schwinger, J., Séférian, R., Segschneider, J., Steinhoff, T., Stocker, B. D., Sutton, A. J., Takahashi, T., Tilbrook, B., van der Werf, G. R., Viovy, N., Wang, Y. P., Wanninkhof, R., Wiltshire, A. and Zeng, N.: Global carbon budget 2014, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7(1), 47–85, doi:10.5194/essd-7-47-2015, 2015.

[13] Middag, R., Séférian, R., Conway, T. M., John, S. G., Bruland, K. W. and de Baar, H. J. W.: Intercomparison of dissolved trace elements at the Bermuda Atlantic Time Series station, Marine Chemistry VL -, (0 SP - EP - PY - T2 -), 2015.

[12] Resplandy, L., Séférian, R. and Bopp, L.: Natural variability of CO2 and O2 fluxes: What can we learn from centuries-long climate models simulations? Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 120(1), 384–404, doi:10.1002/2014JC010463, 2015.

[11] Swingedouw, D., Ortega, P., Mignot, J., Guilyardi, E., Masson-Delmotte, V., Butler, P. G., Khodri, M. and Séférian, R.: Bidecadal North Atlantic ocean circulation variability controlled by timing of volcanic eruptions, Nat Commun, 6:6545, doi:10.1038/ncomms7545, 2015.


2014

[10] Gehlen, M., Séférian, R., Jones, D. O. B., Roy, T., Roth, R., Barry, J., Bopp, L., Doney, S. C., Dunne, J. P., Heinze, C., Joos, F., Orr, J. C., Resplandy, L., Segschneider, J. and Tjiputra, J.: Projected pH reductions by 2100 might put deep North Atlantic biodiversity at risk, Biogeosciences, 11(23), 6955–6967, 2014.

[9] Schwinger, J., Tjiputra, J. F., Heinze, C., Bopp, L., Christian, J. R., Gehlen, M., Ilyina, T., Jones, C. D., Salas-Mélia, D., Segschneider, J., Séférian, R. and Totterdell, I.: Nonlinearity of Ocean Carbon Cycle Feedbacks in CMIP5 Earth System Models, J. Climate, 27(11), 3869–3888, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00452.1, 2014.

[8] Servonnat, J., Mignot, J., Guilyardi, E., Swingedouw, D., Séférian, R. and Labetoulle, S.: Reconstructing the subsurface ocean decadal variability using surface nudging in a perfect model framework, Clim Dyn, 44(1-2), 1–24–24, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2184-7, 2014.

[7] Séférian, R., Bopp, L., Gehlen, M., Swingedouw, D., Mignot, J., Guilyardi, E. and Servonnat, J.: Multiyear predictability of tropical marine productivity, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(32), 11646–11651, 2014a.

[6] Séférian, R., Ribes, A. and Bopp, L.: Detecting the anthropogenic influences on recent changes in ocean carbon uptake, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41(16), 5968–5977, doi:10.1002/2014GL061223, 2014b.


2013

[5] Bopp, L., Resplandy, L., Orr, J. C., Doney, S. C., Dunne, J. P., Gehlen, M., Halloran, P., Heinze, C., Ilyina, T., Séférian, R., Tjiputra, J. and Vichi, M.: Multiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century: projections with CMIP5 models, Biogeosciences, 10(10), 6225–6245, doi:10.5194/bg-10-6225-2013, 2013.

[4] Mignot, J., Swingedouw, D., Deshayes, J., Marti, O., Talandier, C., Séférian, R., Lengaigne, M. and Madec, G.: On the evolution of the oceanic component of the IPSL climate models from CMIP3 to CMIP5: A mean state comparison, Ocean Modelling, 72 IS -(0 SP - EP - PY - T2 -), 167–184, 2013.

[3] Séférian, R., Bopp, L., Gehlen, M., Orr, J., Ethé, C., Cadule, P., Aumont, O., Salas y Mélia, D., Voldoire, A. and Madec, G.: Skill assessment of three earth system models with common marine biogeochemistry, Climate Dynamics, 40(9-10), 2549–2573, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1362-8, 2013a.

[2] Séférian, R., Bopp, L., Swingedouw, D. and Servonnat, J.: Dynamical and biogeochemical control on the decadal variability of ocean carbon fluxes, Earth Syst. Dynam., 4(1), 109–127, doi:10.5194/esd-4-109-2013, 2013b.


2012

[1] Séférian, R., Iudicone, D., Bopp, L., Roy, T. and Madec, G.: Water Mass Analysis of Effect of Climate Change on Air–Sea CO2 Fluxes: The Southern Ocean, J. Climate, 25(11), 3894–3908, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00291.1, 2012.

 Book Chapter

Garçon, V., Bell, T., Wallace, D., Arnold, S., Baker, A., Bakker, D. E., Bange, H., Bates, N., Bopp, L., Boutin, J., Boyd, P., Bracher, A., Burrows, J., Carpenter, L., de Leeuw, G., Fennel, K., Font, J., Friedrich, T., Garbe, C., Gruber, N., Jaeglé, L., Lana, A., Lee, J., Liss, P., Miller, L., Olgun, N., Olsen, A., Pfeil, B., Quack, B., Read, K., Reul, N., Rödenbeck, C., Rohekar, S., Saiz-Lopez, A., Saltzman, E., Schneising, O., Schuster, U., Séférian, R., Steinhoff, T., Traon, P.-Y. and Ziska, F.: Perspectives and Integration in SOLAS Science, in Springer Earth System Sciences, edited by P. S. Liss and M. T. Johnson, pp. 247–306, Springer Berlin Heidelberg. 2014.


 Student Supervision


Post-docs

- Sunghye BAEK (2013-2015) : Development of an ocean surface albedo parameterization for Earth system models (co-encadrement O. Boucher (IPSL/LMD) via le Labex L-IPSL).


Thèse

- Maxime PLAZZOTTA (2015-2018) : Impact de la gestion du rayonnement solaire sur le système Terre sur les cycles globaux de l’eau et du carbone (co-encadrement H.Douville (CNRM)).


Master 2

- Adrien Colomb (2015) : The seasonal response of the land and ocean carbon cycles to solar radiation management. (co-encadrement A. Lenton (CSIRO)).


Master 1

- Cécile Porchier & Simon Jalladeau (2015) : Modélisation des feux naturels dans un contexte de changement climatique. (co-encadrement C. Delire).

- Marion Le Brun (2014) : Étude de la sensibilité des simulations de la biogéochimie marine à la physique de la banquise. (co-encadrement M. Chevallier).

- Priscilla Le Mézo (2013) : Variabilité de la biogéochimie marine dans le Pacifique Équatorial, impact sur les niveaux trophiques supérieurs. (co-encadrement L. Bopp et S. Lefort (IPSL/LSCE)).


 PhD Thesis

Impact of Climate Change on the Ocean Carbon Flux. Influence of the Decadal Variability


Abstract

Since the industrial revolution, oceans have absorbed roughly one quarter of the anthropogenic emissions of CO2, slowing down climate change. The evolution of the ocean carbon sink, paralleled to the anthropogenic CO2 emissions, is ruled by the CO2 as well as climate. Influence of atmospheric CO2 in the recent evolution of the ocean carbon sink is well understood whilst this is not the case for the climate’s one. Indeed, some authors claim that the recent variations of the ocean CO2 sink can be attributed to climate change, whereas some others suggest that these latter are controlled by a decadal variability, which is poorly understood. In this thesis, we address question relative to the role of the decadal variability of the ocean carbon fluxes through the mean of numerical modeling.
On one hand, we have demonstrated that ocean carbon fluxes exhibit decadal fluctuations within the high latitudes oceans. These fluctuations displays modes of 10 to 50-year long which account for 20-40% of the year-to-year variability. Thanks to Detection & Attribution methods applied to RECCAP project’s reconstructions (1960-2005), we have then assessed whether the occurrence of fluctuations at decadal time scale could hamper the detection of the climate contribution to the recent evolution of ocean carbon fluxes. We have shown that the climate contribution is indeed not detected in the high latitude oceans due to the presence of decadal mode of variability. In the low latitude oceans instead, the weaker fluctuations of ocean carbon fluxes at decadal time scale favour the detection of climate influence in the recent variations of the CO2 fluxes.


Keywords

Climate variability – carbon cycle modeling – marine biogeochemistry – carbon cycle feedbacks


No one shall be held responsible, scientifically or otherwise for the content of these pages / articles, but the authors themselves and in no way the responsibility of the CNRM-GAME .