RIBES Aurélien

Research scientist into the team Analysis and Modelling of the Atmosphere, Climate and Sensitivity (AMACS)

Associated research scientist into the Mathematics Institute of Toulouse (IMT)

E-mail : aurelien.ribes[at]meteo.fr

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Office : Office 288, 2° floor of the Navier building
Phone : +33 (0)5 61 07 96 15
Fax : +33 (0)5 61 07 96 10
Mail :
42, Av. Gaspard Coriolis
31057 Toulouse Cedex, FRANCE

Research field
Detection and attribution of climate changes.

Package ROF : v1.0.

 Research interests:

Detection and attribution studies involve both climatology and statistics. My main research interests are split on both fields:

  • statistical highlighting of climate changes (detection),
  • statistical study of the contribution of several external forcings to climate changes (attribution),
  • statistical study of the internal climate variability,
  • statistics and inference in high dimension.


In preparation

  • Robin, Y., A. Ribes (2020) Non-stationary GEV analysis for event attribution combining climate models and observations, submitted to ASCMO.
  • Gillett, N., M. Kirchmeier-Young, A. Ribes, H. Shiogama, G. Hegerl, R. Knutti, G. Gastineau (2020) Constraining human contributions to observed warming since preindustrial, submitted to Nature Climate Change.
  • Ribes, A., S. Qasmi, N. Gillett (2020) Making climate projections conditional on historical observations, submitted to Science Advances. Data+Code


  • Ribes A., S. Thao, J. Cattiaux (2020) : Describing the relationship between a weather event and climate change: a new statistical approach, Journal of Climate, 33 (15), 6297–6314.
  • Naveau P., A. Hannart, A. Ribes (2020) Statistical methods for extreme event attribution in climate science, Annual Review of Statistics and its Application, 7, 89–110, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-031219-041314.
  • Vautard R., M. van Aalst, O. Boucher, A. Drouin, K. Haustein, F. Kreienkamp, G. van Oldenborgh, F. Otto, A. Ribes, Y. Robin, M. Schneider, J.-M. Soubeyroux, P. Stott, S. Seneviratne, M. Vogel, M. Wehner (2020) Human contribution to the record-breaking June and July 2019 heat waves in Western Europe, ERL, in press.
  • Charles E., B. Meyssignac, A. Ribes (2020) : Observational constraint on greenhouse gas and aerosol contributions to global ocean heat content changes, Journal of Climate, in press.
  • Brunner, L., C. McSweeny, A.P. Ballinger, G.C. Hegerl, D.J. Befort, C. O’Reilly, M. Benassi, B. Booth, G. Harris, J. Lowe, E. Coppola, R. Nogherotto, R. Knutti, G. Lenderink, H. de Vries, S. Qasmi, A. Ribes, P. Stocchi, S. Undorf (2020) Quantifying uncertainty in projections of future European climate: a multi-model multi-method approach, Journal of Climate, in press.2019
  • Rigal A., J.-M. Azaïs, A. Ribes (2019) : Estimating daily climatological normals in a changing climate, soumis à Climate Dynamics, 53(1-2), 275-286, doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4584-6.
  • Douville H., A. Ribes (2019) Breakdown of NAO reproducibility into internal versus externally forced components : a pilot study, Climate Dynamics, 52 (1–2), 29–48, doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4141-3.
  • Ribes A., S. Thao, R. Vautard, B. Dubuisson, S. Somot, J. Colin, S. Planton, J.-M. Soubeyroux (2018) : Observed increase of extreme daily rainfall in the French Mediterranean, Climate Dynamics, 52(1-2), 1095-1114, doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4179-2. Data & code
  • Saint-Martin D., O. Geoffroy, L. Watson, H. Douville, G. Bellon, A. Voldoire, J. Cattiaux, B. Decharme, A. Ribes (2019) Fast forward to perturbed equilibrium climate, Geophysical Research Letters, 46 (15), 8969–8975, doi:10.1029/2019GL083031.
  • Tokarska K., G. Hegerl, A. Schurer, A. Ribes, J. Fasullo (2019) Quantifying human contributions to past and future ocean warming and thermosteric sea level rise. Environmental Research Letters, 14 (7), 074020, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab23c1.
  • Voldoire A., et al. (2019) Evaluation of CMIP6 DECK experiments with CNRM-CM6-1. Journal of Advances in Modelling Earth Systems, 11, 2177–2213, doi:10.1029/2019MS001683.
  • Ablain M., L. Zawadzki, R. Jugier, B. Meyssignac, A. Ribes, A. Cazenave, N. Picot (2019) : Uncertainty in Satellite estimate of Global Mean Sea Level changes, trend and acceleration, Earth System Science Data Discuss, 1-26.
  • Séférian, R., et al. (2019) Evaluation of CNRM Earth-System model, CNRM-ESM2-1: role of Earth system processes in present-day and future climate, Journal of Advances in Modelling Earth Systems, 11(12), 4182-4227.
  • Yiou, P., J. Cattiaux, L. Corre, D. Faranda, N. Kadygrov, A. Jézéquel, S. Mittelberger, P. Naveau, A. Ribes, Y. Robin, S. Thao, G.J. van Oldenborgh, R. Vautard, M. Vrac (2020) Analyses of the European summer heatwave of 2018, BAMS, 101 (1), S35–S40.


  • Schurer A., G. Hegerl, A. Ribes, D. Polson, C. Morice, S. Tett (2018) : Estimating the transient climate response from observed warming, Journal of Climate, 31 (20), 8645–8663, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0717.1.
  • Blazquez A., B. Meyssignac, E. Berthier, J.-M. Lemoine, A. Cazenave, A. Ribes (2018) : Exploring the uncertainty in GRACE estimates of the mass redistributions at the Earth surface. Implications for the global water and sea level budgets, Geophysical Journal International, 215 (1), 415–430, doi:10.1093/gji/ggy293.
  • Forbes W., J. Mao, M. Jin, S.-C. Kao, W. Fu, X. Shi, D. Riccuito, P. Thornton, A. Ribes, Y. Wang, S. Piao, T. Zhao, C. Schwalm, F. Hoffman, J. Fisher, A. Ito, B. Poulter, Y. Fang, H. Tian, A. Jain (2018) : Contribution of environmental forcings to US runoff changes for the period 1950-2010, ERL, 13 (5), 054023, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aabb41.
  • Jézéquel A., J. Cattiaux, P. Naveau, S. Radanovics, A. Ribes, R. Vautard, M. Vrac, P. Yiou (2018) Trends of atmospheric circulation during singular hot days in Europe, Environmental Research Letters, 13 (5), 054007, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aab5da.
  • Cattiaux J., A. Ribes (2018) Defining extreme weather events in a climate perspective, BAMS, 99 (8), 1557–1568, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0281.1.
  • Naveau P., A. Ribes, F. Zwiers, A. Hannart, A. Tuel, P. Yiou (2018) : Revising return periods for record events in a climate event attribution context, Journal of Climate, 31 (9), 3411-3422, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0752.1.
  • Yiou P., J. Cattiaux, A. Ribes, R. Vautard, M. Varc (2018) : Recent trends in the recurrence of North-Atlantic Atmospheric circulation patterns, Complexity, vol. 2018, Article ID 3140915, doi:10.1155/2018/3140915.
  • Ribes A. (2018) : Is future climate predictable with statistics? ESAIM: Proceedings and Surveys, 60, 104-113, doi:10.1051/proc/201760104.


  • Chauvin F., H. Douville, A. Ribes (2017) : Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Water Budget in observations and CNRM-CM5 model, Climate Dynamics, 49 (11–12), 4009–4021, doi 10.1007/s00382-017-3559-3.
  • Ribes A., F. Zwiers, J.-M. Azaïs, P. Naveau (2017) : A new statistical method for climate change detection and attribution, Climate Dynamics, 48(1-2), 367–386, doi :10.1007/s00382-016-3079-6.


  • Mao J., A. Ribes, B. Yan, X. Shi, R. Séférian, P. Ciais, Y. Dai, R. E. Dickinson, H. Douville, F. M. Hoffman, M. Jin, S. Piao, D. M. Ricciuto, P. E. Thornton, Z. Zhu (2016) : Human-induced greening of the northern extratropical land surface, Nature Climate Change, 6(10), 959-963, doi :10.1038/NCLIMATE3056.
  • Ribes, A., L. Corre, A. Ribes, A.-L. Gibelin, B. Dubuisson (2016) : Issues in estimating observed warming at the local scale. A case study: the recent warming over France, International Journal of Climatology, 36(11), 3794-3806, doi :10.1002/joc.4593.
  • Azaïs J.-M., A. Ribes (2016): Multivariate spline analysis for multiplicative models: estimation, testing and application to climate change. Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 144, 38-53, doi :10.1016/j.jmva.2015.09.026 Data & Results.


  • Ribes A., N. Gillett, F. Zwiers (2015): Designing Detection and Attribution simulations for CMIP6, Journal of Climate, 28(8), 3435-3438, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00691.1.
  • Azaïs J.-M., A. Ribes (2015): Multivariate spline analysis for multiplicative models: estimation, testing and application to climate change. Journal of Multivariate Analysis, in press Data & Results,
  • Vautard R., G.-J. van Oldenborgh, S. Thao, B. Dubuisson, G. Lenderink, A. Ribes, S. Planton, J.-M. Soubeyroux, P. Yiou (2015) Extreme fall 2014 precipitations in the Cévennes mountain range [in "Explaining Extremes of 2014 from a Climate Perspective"], BAMS, 96(12), S56-S60,
  • Ribes, A., L. Corre, A. Ribes, A.-L. Gibelin, B. Dubuisson (2015) : Issues in estimating observed warming at the local scale. A case study: the recent warming over France, International Journal of Climatology, in press.


  • Hannart A., A. Ribes, P. Naveau (2014) : Optimal fingerprinting under multiple sources of uncertainty, Geophysical Research Letters, 41, 1261-1268, doi: 10.1002/2013GL058653.
  • Séferian R., A. Ribes, L. Bopp (2014) : Detecting the anthropogenic influence on recent changes in ocean carbon uptake, Geophysical Research Letters, 41(16), 5868-5977, doi: 10.1002/2014GL061223.


  • Alkama R., A. Ribes, B. Decharme, L. Marchand (2013) : Detection of global runoff
    changes : results from observations and CMIP5 experiments, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 2967-2979, doi: 10.5194/hess-17-2967-2013.
  • Geoffroy O, D Saint-Martin, A Ribes (2013) Quantifying the sources of spread in climate change experiments, Geophysical Research Letters, 39(24), L24703, doi:10.1029/2012GL054172.
  • Cattiaux J, H Douville, A Ribes, F Chauvin, C Plante (2013) Towards a better understanding of changes in wintertime cold extremes over Europe: a pilot study with
    CNRM and IPSL atmospheric models, Climate Dynamics, 40(9), 2433-2445, doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1436-7.
  • Douville H, A Ribes, B Decharme, R Alkama, J Sheffield (2013) Anthropogenic influence on multidecadal changes in reconstructed global evapotranspiration, Nature Climate Change, 3(1), 59-62, doi:10.1038/nclimate1632.


  • Corre L, L Terray, M Balmaseda, A Ribes, A Weaver (2012) Can oceanic reanalyses be used to assess recent anthropogenic changes and low-frequency internal variability of upper ocean temperature ? , Climate Dynamics, 38(5-6), 877-896, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0950-8.


  • Terray L, L Corre, S Cravatte, T Delcroix, G Reverdin, A Ribes (2011) Near-surface salinity as Nature’s rain gauge to detect human influence on the tropical water cycle, Journal of Climate, 25(3), 958-977, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-10-05025.1.
  • Ouzeau G, J Cattiaux, H Douville, A Ribes, D Saint-Martin (2011) European cold winter 2009-2010: How unusual in the instrumental record and how reproducible in the ARPEGE-Climat model ?, Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L11706, doi:10.1029/2011GL047667.
  • Alkama R, B Decharme, H Douville, A Ribes (2011) Trends in global and basin-scale runoff over the late twentieth century: Methodological issues and sources of uncertainty, Journal of Climate, 24(12), 3000-3014, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3921.1.
  • Bellon G, G Gastineau, A Ribes, H Le Treut (2011) Analysis of the tropical climate variability in a two-column framework, Climate Dynamics, 37(1-2), 73-81, doi: 10.1007/s00382-010-0864-5.


  • Ribes A (2010) Modélisation statistique des changements climatiques, détection et attribution. 42e Journées de Statistique, 24-28 Mai 2010, Marseille, 5pp.
  • Quintana Segui P, A Ribes, E Martin, F Habets, J Boé (2010) Comparison of three downscaling methods in simulating the impact of climate change on the hydrology of Mediterranean basins, Journal of Hydrology, 383 (1-2), 111-124, doi : 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.09.050.


  • Ricard D, AL Beaulant, J Boé, M Déqué, V Ducrocq, A Joly, B Joly, E Martin, O Nuissier, P Quintana Segui, A Ribes, F Sevault and S Somot (2009) Impact du changement climatique sur les événements de pluie intense du bassin méditerranéen, La Météorologie, n°67, novembre 2009.