SPECQ Damien

Researcher in subseasonal-to-seasonal climate predictability

Research group in large-scale meteorology and climate (GMGEC)
PASTEL team (Seasonal predictability and teleconnections)

CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS
42, Av. G. Coriolis
31057 Toulouse Cedex 1, France

Tél. +33 (0) 5 61 07 93 34

E-mail : damien.specq@meteo.fr

 Research

  • Subseasonal (S2S) and seasonal forecasting with coupled climate models
  • Analysis of teleconnections and other sources of predictability, with specific interest on tropical climate variability and its impacts
  • Ensemble forecast correction, calibration and downscaling with statistical methods
  • Forecast verification

 Curriculum

2023-present

  • Head of CNRM research team on seasonal and subseasonal prediction (PASTEL)
    Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, UMR 3589, Météo-France & CNRS

2020-2022

  • Research scientist
    Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, UMR 3589, Météo-France & CNRS

2017-2020

  • Phd thesis
    Supervised by Lauriane Batté and Michel Déqué. Defence date : 6 November 2020
    Title: Predictability of heavy precipitation at the subseasonal timescales in the southwest tropical Pacific
    Available here

2015-2016

  • Master’s degree "Water, Air, Pollution, Energy", Université Paris-Saclay and Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France
  • Exchange semester at Columbia University (New York), Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences
  • Research internship, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Nouméa (New Caledonia)
    Supervised by Christophe Menkes, Jérôme Lefèvre and Gilles Bellon
    Title: Diurnal cycle over New Caledonia in warm season (November-April) : influence of Madden-Julian oscillation and weather regimes. Available here.

2012-2015

  • Ecole polytechnique, master’s degree in engineering

 Supervision

Internships

  • Louis Ledoux-Xatard (February to August 2024). Sup’ENR Perpignan engineering school.
    Extracting the climate change contribution to seasonal forecast temperature anomalies with non-stationary normals.
    Co-supervisor: Frédéric Gayrard
  • Laura Bouzid (February to July 2024). National School of Meteorology.
    Assessing the gain in predictability from Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves in subseasonal forecasts of tropical precipitation.
    Main supervisor: Philippe Peyrillé, also co-supervised with Erwan Cornillault
  • Aurélien Hénon (janvier - juillet 2023). National School of Meteorology.
    Subseasonal predictability of tropical cyclones in the Indian ocean using cyclogenesis indices.
    Co-supervisors: Fabrice Chauvin, Sylvie Malardel
  • Loïs Pourchet (janvier - août 2022). National School of Meteorology.
    Characterization and predictability of extreme precipitations over Europe at subseasonal timescales.
    Main supervisor: Constantin Ardilouze, also co-supervised with Lauriane Batté

Post-docs

  • Shan Li (April 2022 - September 2024). Post-doc on the C3S2-370 contract between Météo-France and the Copernicus Climate Change Services (C3S).
    Development of innovative products for the interpretation of ensemble seasonal forecasts.

 Publications

2024

  • Krouma, M., D. Specq, L. Magnusson, C. Ardilouze, L. Batté, P. Yiou (2024). Improving subseasonal forecast of precipitation in Europe by combining a stochastic weather generator with dynamical models. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4733
  • Yang, C., R. Bourdallé-Badie, M. Drévillon, (...), D. Specq et al (2024). Gathering users and developers to shape together the next-generation ocean reanalyses: Ocean reanalyses workshop of the European Copernicus Marine Service. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0034.1

2022

  • Hitchcock, P., A. Butler, A. Charlton-Perez, C.I. Garfinkel, (...), D. Specq et al (2022). Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts Geoscientific Model Development, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022
  • Specq, D., L. Batté (2022). Do subseasonal forecasts take advantage of Madden-Julian oscillation windows of opportunity? Atmospheric Science Letters, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1078

2021

  • Ardilouze, C., D. Specq, L. Batté, C. Cassou (2021). Flow dependence of wintertime subseasonal prediction skill over Europe. Weather and Climate Dynamics, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1033-2021

2020

  • Specq, D., L. Batté (2020). Improving subseasonal precipitation forecasts through a statistical-dynamical approach: application to the southwest tropical Pacific. Climate Dynamics, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05355-7
  • Specq, D., L. Batté, M. Déqué, C. Ardilouze (2020). Multimodel forecasting of precipitation at subseasonal timescales over the southwest tropical Pacific. Earth and Space Science, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EA001003
  • Specq, D., G. Bellon, A. Peltier, J. Lefèvre, C. Menkes (2020). Influence of subseasonal variability on the diurnal cycle of precipitation on a mountainous island: the case of New Caledonia. Monthly Weather Review, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-19-0177.1

 Oral presentations

2024

  • Multi-model ensemble clustering at Météo-France for operational seasonal prediction. Workshop on Objective Seasonal Forecast (OSF) production over the MedCOF region, Madrid (Spain), July 2024

2023

  • Using ocean reanalysis for seasonal prediction at Météo-France. Ocean Reanalyses Workshop of the Copernicus Marine Service, Toulouse (France), October 2023
  • La prévision infra-saisonnière et saisonnière avec des modèles de climat : Questions scientifiques et considérations pratiques. Workshop on Predictability in Climate Sciences, Paris (France), October 2023
  • Multiple scenarios of climate anomalies over Europe in ensemble seasonal forecasts. EMS 2023, Bratislava (Slovakia), September 2023
  • Multiple tropical wave occurrence drive extreme precipitation events in central Sahel. S2S summit, Reading (United Kingdom), July 2023. Presentation delivered on behalf of Philippe Peyrillé.

2022

  • An overview of subseasonal forecasting research at CNRM in the S2S project. PISSARO project workshop, Saint-Denis (Reunion Island), June 2022
  • Do subseasonal forecasts take advantage of windows of opportunity related to a precursor phenomenon?. EGU General Assembly, Vienna (Austria), May 2022
  • Contribution to the "Challenge to improve S2S predictions using Artificial Intelligence". WMO S2S Prediction Project Monthly Webinar, online, January 2022

2021

  • Do subseasonal forecasts take advantage of windows of opportunity for heavy precipitation?. WMO S2S Prediction Project Monthly Webinar on Predicting Extreme Weather, online, September 2021
  • A statistical-dynamical approach to improve subseasonal precipitation forecasts: application to the southwest tropical Pacific. EGU General Assembly, vEGU21: Gather Online, April 2021

2019

  • Subseasonal predictability of heavy precipitation in the southwest tropical Pacific in relation with the Madden-Julian Oscillation. International Meeting on Statistical Climatology, Toulouse (France), June 2019
  • Forecasting heavy precipitation at the subseasonal timescales: application to the southwest tropical Pacific. EGU General Assembly, Vienna (Austria), April 2019
  • Benefits of a multimodel approach for forecasting precipitation over New Caledonia. Workshop on predictability, dynamics and applications research using the TIGGE and S2S ensembles, ECMWF, Reading (United Kingdom), April 2019

 Posters

2024

  • Operational seasonal prediction over Europe using multiple scenarios from a multi-model ensemble forecast.
    • Copernicus C3S General Assembly, Brussels (Belgium), June 2024
    • International Meeting on Statistical Climatology, Toulouse (France), June 2024

2023

  • Making sense of ensembles for the seasonal time scale. Copernicus C3S General Assembly, Brno (Czech Republic), September 2023

2022

  • Temperature and precipitation scenarios over Europe in the Météo-France C3S seasonal forecasts (poster). Copernicus C3S General Assembly, The Hague (The Netherlands), September 2022

No one shall be held responsible, scientifically or otherwise for the content of these pages / articles, but the authors themselves and in no way the responsibility of the CNRM.