Ensemble Prediction - RECYF Recherche et EXpérimentation sur les CYclogénèses et les Fronts

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Using a model climatology for extreme waves diagnostics

by Bruno Joly published in the Météo-France 2018 Research Report (ISSN : 2116-4541) We study the sensitivity of the forecast of strong waves affecting the Atlantic coast of Western Europe, sometimes leading to very significant retreats of the coastline. When a wave model (...)

Deep Learning methods for the detection of precipitating objects in AROME and AROME-PE forecasts

by Laure Raynaud published in the Météo-France 2018 Research Report (ISSN : 2116-4541) The utilization of precipitation forecasts could be improved with an appropriate processing of model fields. An innovative and promising approach consists in extracting from the (...)

AROME Ensemble Forecast for Tropical Cyclones

by Sylvie Malardel collaboration between RECYF and the French Cyclone Research Cell (CRC) published in the Météo-France 2018 Research Report (ISSN : 2116-4541) A prototype for an Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) based on the oversea version of the limited-area French (...)

Predictability of mid-latitude cyclone

The predictability of cyclogenesis evolving into two distinct scenarii is addressed within a bi-periodic spectral quasi-geostrophic model with uniform potential vorticity. An initial condition has been carefully built up using finite amplitude top and bottom temperature (...)

Modeling of structure functions based on a heterogeneous diffusion operator and estimated from an ensemble

Structure functions correspond to the background error covariance functions. They play a key role in the current data assimilation schemes used in operational centers. In particular these functions contribute to spread the information from the observations. The (...)