Researcher at CNRM (UMR3589 / Météo-France / CNRS / Université de Toulouse)
Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (since 2016)
Climate and Large-Scale Modelling Group (GMGEC) / MOSCA Research Team
42, avenue Coriolis
31057 Toulouse Cedex 1, France
Tél. +33 (0) 561079027
Office #078 : Navier building (CNRM)
email : sofia (dot) darmaraki (at) meteo (dot) fr
Curriculum Vitae - Version 2018
I am a physical oceanographer and climate researcher with a passion for extreme climate events (i.e. marine heat waves, cold spells, hurricanes, precipitation extremes). I am particularly interested in how the interplay between large-scale atmosphere circulation and ocean drives the evolution of (marine) extreme events under different climate change regimes. In this context, my work also aims to provide useful information for (marine) ecosystems and industries that are impacted by (marine) extreme events.
For my PhD, I work on the newly-emerged field of abrupt and prolonged ocean thermal events (marine heat waves (MHW)). They are episodes of large-scale warm temperature anomalies in the ocean that have prompted substantial disruptions to marine ecosystems with major implications on related fisheries as well.
I examine MHW spatiotemporal evolution and their driving mechanisms in the Mediterranean Sea, by developing and applying a MHW detection algorithm on high-resolution simulation outputs of Mediterranean climate system for the 21st century.
To address the sources of uncertainties in future projections I investigate if, how and why MHWs change under different greenhouse gas emission scenario, using the new IPCC-AR5 representative concentration pathways (RCP45, RCP85,RCP26) and an ensemble of dedicated, fully-coupled Regional Climate Models from the Med-CORDEX initiative.
Ocean Sciences conference 2018 – Portland, USA (Oral)
10th International HyMeX Workshop – Barcelona, Spain (Oral)
European Geoscience Union General Assembly, Vienna, Austria (Oral)
4th International Conference, MedClivar, Athens (Oral)
E3S Cross community workshop on Extreme Events and Environments from Climate to Society (Oral)
Future regional climate change scenarios of the Mediterranean Sea : robust assessment and uncertainties
Mediterranean Sea, climate change scenario, regional climate modelling, marine heatwaves, climate change uncertainty assessment, extreme oceanic events
The study of the impacts of future regional climate change requires large coordinated ensembles of dedicated simulations in order to assess the robustness of the results with respect to the various sources of uncertainty. Confidence in model projections as well as adaptation strategies are only possible if a robust signal can be delivered. Over Europe, such ensemble of simulations does exist for the continental area thanks to international and European projects (for example FP6 ENSEMBLES, WCRP Euro-CORDEX and Med-CORDEX). However, there is no such ensemble for the Mediterranean Sea ocean modelling.Mediterranean Sea climate change studies have been based on only one climate change simulation, without exploring the spread of the possible projected futures. Therefore climate change impact studies for the Mediterranean ecosystems and maritime activities can not be considered as very robust as they only use one possible future evolution of the Mediterranean Sea.
In this project we propose to unlock the above issue and assess a robust impact of climate change on the Mediterranean Sea. An ensemble of dedicated regional climate models provided by Med-CORDEX framework is used to investigate the relative role of the various sources of uncertainty in Mediterranean Sea regional climate change projections on physical and ecosystemic variables. The multi-model approach will explore the sensitivity of the projection results to the choice of the climate model for a given scenario (e.g. RCP8.5) and to the choice of the scenario for a given model (i.e. CNRM-RCSM4 model). Following the results of the first step, dedicated sensitivity simulations to study the role of the model initial state and of the model setting/tuning in the simulated response to future climate change are also performed. At each step, integrated indicators (vertical stratification index, vertical mixing index, eddy or frontogenesis index, extreme indices such as ocean heat waves) useful for marine ecosystem modelling will be computed and analyzed in addition to more classical physical variables (temperature, salinity, current velocity, thermohaline circulation, water mass formation).