ARDILOUZE Constantin

Constantin ARDILOUZE

Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques - UMR 3589
42, Avenue G. Coriolis
31057 Toulouse Cedex 1, France
Phone+33 (0) 5 61 07 99 12
e-mail: constantin dot ardilouze at meteo dot fr

Affiliation: CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France

Research Interests
Academic background
Projects and Programs

 Research Interests

  • Seasonal and sub-seasonal predictions using dynamical coupled earth-system models
  • Evaluation of the sources of climate predictability related to the land surface
  • Land surface initialization strategy in dynamical forecast systems
  • Long range predictability of mid-latitude extreme events

 Academic background


  • PhD, Université de Toulouse
    Thesis supervised by Michel Déqué and Lauriane Batté, and defended on July 2nd 2019
    Title: Impact of soil moisture on summer climate predictability over mid-latitudes
    Thesis awarded with the Université Paul Sabatier 2020 prize in Earth sciences, by the Toulouse Académie des Sciences.
    Download the PhD manuscript (in French)


  • Master of Science in "Ocean Atmosphere and Land surfaces" at Université Paul Sabatier Toulouse 3, France
  • Master’s Degree in engineering from Ecole Nationale de la Météorologie, INP-Toulouse, France


  • Master’s Degree in engineering from AgroParisTech - Paris Institute of technology for life, food and environmental sciences, France



  • Ardilouze, C. and A. Boone: Impact of initializing the soil with a thermally and hydrologically balanced state on subseasonal predictability Climate Dynamics

Under review

  • Krouma, M., D. Specq, L. Magnusson, C. Ardilouze, L. Batté and P. Yiou : Improving subseasonal forecast of precipitation in Europe by combining a stochastic weather generator with dynamical models Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
  • Zhang, Y. et al. Near-global summer circulation response to the spring surface Temperature anomaly in Tibetan Plateau
    — The GEWEX/LS4P First Phase Experiment
    Climate Dynamics


  • Xue, Y., I. Diallo, A. Boone,...,C. Ardilouze et al.: Remote effects of Tibetan Plateau spring land temperature on global subseasonal to seasonal precipitation prediction and comparison with effects of sea surface temperature: the GEWEX/LS4P Phase I experiment. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-023-06905-5


  • Xue, Y., I. Diallo,A. Boone,...,C. Ardilouze et al.: Spring Land Temperature in Tibetan Plateau and Global-Scale Summer Precipitation: Initialization and Improved Prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0270.1
  • Domeisen, D.,...,S. Antoine,C. Ardilouze,L. Batté et al. : Advances in the subseasonal prediction of extreme events. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0221.1v
  • Ruggieri, P., M. Benassi, S. Materia, D. Peano, C. Ardilouze, L. Batté, S. Gualdi : On the role of Eurasian autumn snow cover in dynamical seasonal predictions.Climate Dynamics,doi:10.1007/s00382-021-06016-z


  • Ardilouze, C.,D. Specq,L. Batté,C. Cassou : Flow dependence of wintertime subseasonal prediction skill over Europe. Weather and Climate Dynamics, doi:10.5194/wcd-2-1033-2021
  • Xue, Y.,T. Yao,A. Boone,...,C. Ardilouze et al.: Impact of Initialized Land Surface Temperature and Snowpack on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project, Phase I (LS4P-I): Organization and Experimental design. Geoscientific Model Development, doi:10.5194/gmd-14-4465-2021
  • Prodhomme C., S. Materia, C. Ardilouze, R.H. White, L. Batté, V. Guemas, G. Fragkoulidis, J. García-Serrano : Seasonal prediction of European Summer Heatwaves. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-021-05828-3
  • Materia,S., C. Ardilouze, C. Prodhomme, M.G. Donat, M. Benassi, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, D. Peano, L.P. Caron, P. Ruggieri, S. Gualdi: Summer temperature response to extreme soil water conditions in the Mediterranean transitional climate regime. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-021-05815-8
  • Benassi, M., G. Conti, S. Gualdi, P. Ruggieri, S. Materia, J. Garcia-Serrano, F.M. Palmeiro, L. Batté, C. Ardilouze : ENSO teleconnection to the Euro-Mediterranean late-winter: the role of extratropical Pacific modulation. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-021-05768-y


  • Ardilouze, C., S. Materia, L. Batté, M. Benassi, C. Prodhomme, 2020 : Precipitation response to extreme soil moisture conditions over the Mediterranean. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05519-5
  • Mezzina, B., J. García-Serrano, I. Bladé, F. M. Palmeiro, L. Batté, C. Ardilouze, M. Benassi, S. Gualdi , 2020 : Multi-model assessment of the late-winter extra-tropical response to El Niño and La Niña. Climate Dynamics, doi: 10.1007/s00382-020-05415-y
  • Specq, D., L. Batté, M. Déqué, C. Ardilouze, 2020 : Multimodel forecasting of precipitation at subseasonal timescales over the southwest tropical Pacific. Earth and space science, doi:10.1029/2019EA001003
  • Merryfield, W. J., Baehr, J., Batté, ..., C. Ardilouze et al. , 2020 : Current and emerging developments in subseasonal to decadal prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi :10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0037.1


  • Ardilouze, C., L. Batté, B. Decharme, M.Déqué, 2019: On the link between summer dry bias over the US Great Plains and seasonal temperature prediction skill in a dynamical forecast system. Weather and forecasting, doi:10.1175/WAF-D-19-0023.1
  • Ardilouze, C., L. Batté, M. Déqué, E. van Meijgaard, B. van den Hurk, 2019: Investigating the impact of soil moisture on European summer climate in ensemble numerical experiments. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4358-1


  • Batté, L., C. Ardilouze, M. Déqué, 2018: Forecasting West African heat waves at sub-seasonal and seasonal time scales. Mon. Weather Rev. doi:10.1175/MWR-D-17-0211.1


  • Ardilouze, C., L. Batté, F. Bunzel, D. Decremer, M. Déqué, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, H. Douville, D. Fereday, V. Guemas, C. MacLachlan, W. Müller, C. Prodhomme, 2017: Multi-model assessment of the impact of soil moisture initialization on mid-latitude summer predictability. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3555-7
  • Ardilouze, C., L. Batté, M. Déqué, 2017: Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasts with CNRM-CM: a case study on the July 2015 West-European heat wave. Adv. Sci. Res., 14, 115-121, doi:10.5194/asr-14-115-2017, 2017
  • Vitart, F., C. Ardilouze, A. Bonet, A. Brookshaw, M. Chen, C. Codorean, M. Déqué, L. Ferranti, E. Fucile, M. Fuentes, H. Hendon, J. Hodgson, H. Kang, A. Kumar, H. Lin, G. Liu, X. Liu, P. Malguzzi, I. Mallas, M. Manoussakis, D. Mastrangelo, C. MacLachlan, P. McLean, A. Minami, R. Mladek, T. Nakazawa, S. Najm, Y. Nie, M. Rixen, A. Robertson, P. Ruti, C. Sun, Y. Takaya, M. Tolstykh, F. Venuti, D. Waliser, S. Woolnough, T. Wu, D. Won, H. Xiao, R. Zaripov, and L. Zhang, 2017: The Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (S2S) Project Database. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0017.1.


  • Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E.,A. Barthélemy, M. Chevallier, R. Cullather, N. Fučkar, F. Massonnet, P. Posey, W. Wang, J. Zhang, C. Ardilouze, C. M. Bitz, G. Vernieres, A. Wallcraft, M. Wang, 2016 : Multi-model seasonal forecast of Arctic sea-ice: forecast uncertainty at pan-Arctic and regional scales. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3388-9



  • Predicting the leaf area index in a dynamical S2S forecast system, S2S Summit, Reading (UK), July 2023


  • Using the enthalpy and physical limits to constrain initial conditions : Rationale and first results, LS4P Chicago General Assembly (remote oral presentation), Dec. 2022
  • Excessively dry soils hamper summer seasonal prediction skill: can this be avoided? - Poster presentation - 3rd Pan-GASS Meeting Understanding and Modeling Atmospheric Processes, Monterey, CA (USA), July 2022


  • Flow-dependence of wintertime sub-seasonal prediction skill over Europe - European Geosciences Union General Assembly, (remote oral presentation), April 2021


  • Summer precipitation response to wet soil conditions over the Mediterranean, AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA (USA), Dec. 2019
  • Impact of soil moisture on summer climate predictability over mid-latitudes (seminar), CMCC, Bologna (Italy), Oct. 2019
  • Sensitivity of the Mediterranean summer climate to soil moisture in numerical experiments, 12th HyMeX Workshop, Split (Croatia), May 2019


  • Reduction of model precipitation bias and impact on summer prediction skill - CRESCENDO General Assembly and LandMIP, Toulouse (France), Oct. 2018
  • Investigating the impact of soil moisture on European summer climate - Second International Conference on Seasonal to Decadal Prediction, Boulder, CO (USA), Sept. 2018
  • Reduction of model precipitation bias and impact on summer prediction skill - 18th EMS Annual Meeting, Budapest (Hungary), Sept. 2018
  • Summer precipitation bias mitigation in a seasonal prediction system - 2nd Workshop on Bias Correction in Climate Studies, Santander (Spain), May 2018


  • Investigating soil-moisture related summer predictability - Poster presentation - European Geosciences Union General Assembly, Vienna (Austria), April 2017
  • Reconsidering the role of soil moisture in summer seasonal predictability - 1st SURFEX Workshop, Toulouse (France), Feb. 2017


  • Predictability of heat waves over Europe: three case studies - FP7-SPECS 5th General Assembly, Exeter (UK), Oct. 2016
  • Subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts with CNRM-CM: a case study on the July 2015 West-European heat wave - 16th EMS Annual Meeting & 11th European Conference on Applied Climatology, Trieste (Italy), Sept. 2016
  • Impact of soil moisture initial conditions on multi-model summer predictions over mid-latitudes - Poster presentation - European Geosciences Union General Assembly, Vienna (Austria), April 2016


  • Impact of land surface initialization on winter predictability - FP7-SPECS 4th General Assembly, Norrköping (Sweden), Sept. 2015
  • Le nouveau système 5 de prévision saisonnière à Météo France : caractéristiques et comparaison avec le système 4 - Journées R&D, Toulouse, June 2015 (in French)


  • Impact of Land surface initialization on European summer predictability - 14th EMS Annual Meeting & 10th European Conference on Applied Climatology ,Prague (Czech Republic), Oct. 2014
  • Impact of soil moisture initialization on summer predictability: a review - FP7-SPECS 3rd General Assembly, Toulouse (France), Oct. 2014

 Projects and programs



  • FP7 SPECS (2012-2017)
  • ERA4CS MEDSCOPE (2017-2021)
  • COPERNICUS C3S2_370 : Operational Seasonal Predictions
  • H2020 CONFESS (2020-2024) : PI for CNRM
  • Horizon Europe CERISE (2023-2027)


  • WWRP-WCRP S2S (2014-2023) : CNRM contact point, Data provider, Technical committee
  • WWRP SAGE (2024-2028) : Steering group member
  • WCRP GEWEX LS4P (2019- ongoing)

No one shall be held responsible, scientifically or otherwise for the content of these pages / articles, but the authors themselves and in no way the responsibility of the CNRM.