KIC-E3P

KIC-E3P

Extreme Events for Energy Providers

Changement climatique et services climatiques

Coordinateur Pascal Yiou (LSCE)
Correspondant CNRM-GAME Hervé Douville
Équipes CNRM-GAME GMGEC/VDR
Site Internet du projet KIC-E3P
Type Kic
Début septembre 2011
Durée 3 ans

 Objectifs

The Extreme Events for Energy Providers (E3P) aims at filling a gap between climate science and its practical use in the energy sector and creating in turn favourable conditions for new business opportunities. The value chain ranges from addressing research questions directly related to energy-significant climate extremes to providing innovative tools of information and decision making (including methodologies, best practices and software) and climate science training for the energy sector, with a focus on extreme events. Those tools will integrate the scientific knowledge that is developed by scientific communities, and translate it into a usable probabilistic framework. The project will deliver projection tools assessing the probabilities of future energy-relevant climate extremes at a range of spatial scales varying from pan-European to local scales. The KIC added value is the bridge that it will create between academic, industries and SMEs to accomplish the value chain.

 Apports du CNRM-GAME

La contribution du CNRM-GAME était de quantifier les incertitudes sur la réponse des températures quotidiennes en terme de moyennes saisonnières, mais aussi de variabilité jour à jour, d’amplitude du cycle diurne, de caractéristiques des vagues de froid et des canicules) sur l’Europe dans les projections climatiques globales CMIP5 réalisées en vue de la préparation du 5ème rapport du GIEC.
Différents indicateurs thermiques ont été définis en collaboration avec les professionnels du secteurs de l’énergie et les analyses ont été conduites sur un grand nombre de modèles et sur différents scénarios de concentration. Au delà des statistiques sur les températures, une approche en régime de temps a été mise en oeuvre pour isoler la contribution de la circulation de grande échelle aux incertitudes sur la réponse des températures (ainsi qu’aux erreurs sur la simulation des températures observées sur la période récente).
Enfin le CNRM a également contribué à alimenter l’outil E3Pviz permettant de visualiser sur l’Europe les projections de différents indicateurs thermiques.

 Description du projet

The value chain ranges from addressing research questions directly related to energy-significant climate extremes to providing innovative tools of information and decision making (including methodologies and software) and climate science training for the energy sector, with a focus on extreme events. Those tools will integrate the k4nowledge that is developed by scientific communities, and translate it into a usable probabilistic framework.
The E3P project will deliver projection tools assessing the probabilities of future energy-relevant climate extremes at a range of spatial scales varying from pan-European to local scales.
Estimating probabilistic diagnostics of energy user relevant variables from the multi-model projections will help the energy sector to elaborate medium to long-term plans, and will allow the assessment of climate risks associated to those plans.

Heat wave number as well as geometric mean and maximum values of heat wave duration, extent, intensity and severity. The values obtained for EOBS observations are depicted with the black dot. The grey box indicates the range simulated by an ensemble of historical simulations with the CNRM model (CNRM-ENS). The results for the CMIP5 ensemble (historical simulations as well as three RCP scenarios of the 21st century, only one realization for each model) are displayed as box-whisker plots. The streak indicates the ensemble median, the box the interquartile range, the whisker the full ensemble spread. Present-day climate is defined
as the 1979-2008 period whereas future climate (based on RCP scenarios) is defined as the 2070-2099 period.

 Livrables ou résultats attendus

WP1 : Management
D1.1.1 : Periodic information newsletters
D1.2.1 : General consortium agreement and amendments for one-to-one agreements
D1.2.2 : List of all data sets to be used, right of use and documentation
D1.3.1 : Databases and access web site, with documentation
D1.4.1 : Web site
D1.4.2 : General assemblies and promotion events

WP2 : Business model, innovation chain, products
D2.1.1 : Benchmark of product on case studies
D2.1.2 : Preliminary EP market study on extremes
D2.2.1 : A report on zooming methodologies, with pros and drawbacks
D2.2.2 : Regional case studies for extreme events and energy related indices.
D2.3.1 : Presentation to the EPs Report including EPs comments
D2.3.2 : a report on the consequences of the obtained results for adaptation and regulation requirements ; tools for future extremes estimation
D2.4.1 : advice and training on methodologies and/or tool developments.
D2.4.2 : Project wiki for internal communication.

WP3 : Science and knowledge for energy-oriented climate extremes
D3.1.1 : A catalogue of indices that are industry relevant, with large-scale and regional time series for the past decades.
D3.1.2 : A report detailing the indices, maximum level of uncertainty to be useful, associated risks, state of the art of previous related studies, and implementation feasibility.
D3.2.1 Reference ensemble and study of previous cases simulated by model simulations, compared with observations
D3.2.2 : Report on pan-European model diagnostics of cold waves, in the form of frequency maps taking into account persistence, storms, ...
D3.2.3 : Pan-European maps of extreme events in the current climate
D3.2.4 : Pan-European maps of Tmin & Tmax model biases and their dynamical versus non dynamical contributions (in a subset of CFMIP2 and CMIP5 simulations)
D3.2.5 : Regional higher-resolution diagnostics of model skill to simulate extreme events and frequency maps for the current climate (obtained from zoomed tools defined in WP6.
D3.2.6 : Database of synthetic cases
D3.3.1 : a state of the art assessment of changes in extreme events (cold spells, heatwaves, storms) for Europe. This report will include statistical and physical uncertainties from climate models for future projections.
D3.3.2 : Multi-model assessment of changes in Tmin & Tmax (and associated severe climate events) over Europe and of associated uncertainties in a subset of CFMIP2 and CMIP5 simulations.
D3.3.3 : an assessment of energy relevant diagnostics and uncertainties related to climate extremes (from T3.2) for Europe in model projections.
Précautions particulières à prendre pour la protection des découvertes ?
Aucune.
Préciser les moyens envisagés (brevet, …)

Au sein du WP3 :
Evaluation et projection des extrema de Tmin et Tmax sur l’Europe dans un jeu de simulations CMIP5 (dont CNRM-CM5)
Etude de cas (vagues de froid) avec Arpège-Climat

The Extreme Events for Energy Providers (E3P) aims at filling a gap between climate science and its practical use in the energy sector and creating in turn favourable conditions for new business opportunities. The value chain ranges from addressing research questions directly related to energy-significant climate extremes to providing innovative tools of information and decision making (including methodologies, best practices and software) and climate science training for the energy sector, with a focus on extreme events. Those tools will integrate the scientific knowledge that is developed by scientific communities, and translate it into a usable probabilistic framework. The project will deliver projection tools assessing the probabilities of future energy-relevant climate extremes at a range of spatial scales varying from pan-European to local scales. The KIC added value is the bridge that it will create between academic, industries and SMEs to accomplish the value chain.

 Partenaires

- IPSL, Météo-France, Imperial College
- EDF, GDF Suez, EDF Energy, Aria Technologies, Numtech, CLIMPACT, AXA